Uncool Mobility

What are the key trends for CES 2012?

Here are my first thoughts on key trends we'll see in Vegas. What are the top five trends you are expecting at CES?

Smart TV rebounds as Android TV as Manufacturers Race Against Apple

Over a year ago Eric Schmidt claimed that by the summer 2012 “the majority of televisions will have Google TV embedded .” Google TV was panned as a flop as Google struggled to integrate and launch fully baked services with partners. CES 2012 will show Schmidt was right, but not in the way he expected.

Google has become a force in TVs and other home consumer electronics through the embedded Linux community’s adoption of Android. Most major manufacturers will debut Android powered HDTVs—but still little to no Google TV 2.0 design elements.

The companies debuting smart TVs at CES are racing against Apple’s long-rumored move into TVs. If Apple is in fact releasing a smart HDTV product in 2012, these companies will be ready with their own models built around Android.

Voice

With Nuance snapping up Vlingo, and Siri dominating the iPhone4GS story, voice interface will be a big story at CES.

Tablets Redux

As iPad continues to dominate the tablet space, we will continue to see every manufacturer seek to create demand through feature innovation. Look for examples such as the Asus Eee Transformer as Tablets continue to take over the netbook, ultra portable, and lower-end laptop segments. Manufacturers will emphasize dockable keyboards, slim casing, quad-core, and ICS.

A notable exception is Amazon. The Kindle Fire currently getting all the attention, and CES may also see the introduction of other content-subsidized device models.

What else have I missed?

Fighting for the social address book

I noticed a nice commentary on Forrester's blog regarding the social address book.

One of the most interesting parts of the rise of social networking, especially mobile social networking, is the battle for the social address book. Email providers are trying to wrap increasing features into jammed inboxes, social networks are trying to integrate messaging as a background transport to content-posting sites, and mobile providers are trying to leverage the device address book to drive communications in real time. Who will win?

One model I'm watching is third-party, standalone services to provide a cross-platform ability to manage messaging across many sites and services. Ping does this from the web, many people use Twitter to achieve this within social networking, and Xumii is an example of a startup trying to provide this as a service across mobile devices. Of course Nokia, RIM, and Apple are all examples of device makers trying to achieve the same thing with different models.

I think Xumii got it right with it's feature for threaded conversations. Threading conversations across messaging mediums is a great use case, but is it a model that can grow virally or does it need to be experienced for the value to be clear to consumers? In this market few startups are willing to spend time on demand generation at that level.

The capabilities to share media files and create private groups are also cool but I would argue those are "deeper" features which will appeal to people who are first sold on the capability of integrating their communication needs from their phone address book--as opposed to their email inbox.

The hurdle for Xumii will be achieving a UI that can match native applications on discoverability, ease of use, and feature simplification.

Google brings AdWords to iPhone

Google has tailored its AdWords program for mobile and is now allowing advertisers to purchase platform-specific ads. This increases Apple's value as a platform to developers as well as content and ISVs.

Device and service vendors competing with Apple will have to respond to the value Apple is creating with its market ecosystem and get beyond launching touchscreens or announcing plans to add an icon enabling application downloads. Apple is remaking this market without serious responses from any of the incumbents.

Context-sensitive advertising coming to SMS

Mobile social network brings adwords to SMS • The Register.

This is a trend to watch. Social Networking site Wadja has created an adwords-like model which "allows advertisers to sponsor specific words in text messages sent by members".

A service like this which depends upon context would have utility to end users, and therefore be more successful, if applied to a public/private format such as Twitter which incents search as a behavior.

Twitter, are you listening?

Web 2.0 implosion begins; FB Connect signals end of two social networking startups

As FaceBook starts its marketing & PR for Connect, smaller social networking startups (whose ability to post and read across SN platforms was a main differentiator) are folding. FB is aggressively moving to control the social addressbook / social graph and the plunging economy will aid its efforts.

"Facebook Connect--the service launched last spring that lets members log on to other Web sites using their Facebook profile--appears to be entering a new phase. The New York Times, in a big-picture story Sunday about the social network's plans to extend its reach across the Web, notes that the Facebook Connect service is gearing up for expansion: In the next few weeks, a number of prominent Web sites will weave this service into their pages, including those of the Discovery Channel and The San Francisco Chronicle, the social news site Digg, the genealogy network Geni, and the online video hub Hulu"

The reaction:

Pownce closed, team members are going to blogging provider SixApart

TruTap, a UK mobile social networking aggregator, lays off 80% of staff while looking for exit

Zumobi turns to App Store to resurrect app distribution--will search rule distribution?

This article compares search engine optimization efforts to marketing of applications on mobile app stores. Best quote: "it’s like the dreaded search-engine optimization for the Internet, where you do stuff to get recognized by Google and get listed higher in the rankings".

When users turn to search as a navigation aid it's a leading sign the existing UI is broken. I think it's hilarious that "doing stuff to get recognized" is the explanation of search engine optimization. Existing mobile application distribution is so horrendous that Apple's App Store is a shining light of usability in comparison and should be applauded.

This does raise a very interesting question: will search become the dominant UI of app stores and by extension rich mobile UIs? Android sure hopes so.

The Making Of An iPhone App | mocoNews.net.

Bloomberg: Downturn may force web 2.0 startups to generate revenue!

Shocking story in Bloomberg today, as web 2.0 media darlings are looking at being forced into...money making.

Prime example: "Twitter may charge companies for access to its users so it doesn't have to ask venture capitalists for more cash, said Williams, the company's chief executive officer."

Bloomberg.com: Technology.

Android phone is finally here, looks interesting but not overwhelming

T-Mobile announced the first Google Android phone today at a press conference in New York, calling it the "G1". The announcement stressed the integration of Google services onto the HTC touchscreen device, particularly search.

The two elements of Android which will draw the most attention as being directly competitive to Apple's ecosystem are the integration of a music store and an application store.

Watching the video it looks like it has some features which are ahead of Apple and RIM but the overall integration and service experience may lag.

T-Mobile announcement and information:

Details:

Amazon has provided a music store and purchasing capability. There is an Amazon MP3 icon which lets you surf the site's music store and do one-click ordering. Its default music player has options to search for related material on services such as Google or YouTube while a song is playing--a step beyond what Apple's "Genius" feature can do.

The device OS also has an "Android Market", an application store comparable to iPhone's Appstore. There are three high-level differences between Apple's App Store and Android's Android Market. Android will only feature free applications, Android has no approval process, and the Android Market will have no website or desktop element.

The G1 also features push email for Gmail; pull email for other POP3 and IMAP. No native support for Exchange.

Google products bundled on phone:
- Google Search
- Google Maps
- Gmail
- Google Calendar
- Google Talk
- YouTube

Pricing: US$179 for the device with a 2-year plan required of voice ($29-99) + data ($25-35/mo) (therefore minimum of $65/mo w/only 300 voice minutes and 400 messages, unlimited data)

Availability: October 22 in the US, November for UK, Western Europe to follow early 2009

Facebook Ads Target You Where It Hurts - washingtonpost.com

Facebook Ads Target You Where It Hurts - washingtonpost.com.

This is a funny article about the author receiving "you are fat" advertising messages on her FaceBook page. As mobile targeting will only be more obtrusive this is a reminder that advertisers will not keep up with new capabilities and technologies, but rather apply the same over-the-top methods required by massive spamming.

Mobile Metrics - Free Mobile Market Level Data | AdMob

Link: Mobile Metrics - Free Mobile Market Level Data | AdMob.

AdMob breaks out worlwide mobile browser share by vendor on this month's report, showing Nokia leading with 34% while Openwave follows at 29% and AccessNetfront is the only other double-digit share at 12%.

With Microsoft Mobile Explorer and Blackberry browser both below 5% the report is one more reminder that basic and feature phones continue to dominate and most people experience mobile applications on/through them.