Palm reported earnings a few days ago. There are some very interesting comments regarding mobile messaging devices and vendors. Key claims made by Palm:
- RIM has superior execution in operator channel because of its device/platform integration, and this advantage is short-term.
- MOT/Good accounts for 10-12% of all Treo sales, but that number will drop going forward because of Microsoft Exchange Direct Push improvements to device management and security. Exchange Direct Push will soon squeeze out Good.
In other words, Palm is asserting on one hand that the mobile messaging market will squeeze out the middleware vendors and become largely a Microsoft game on the solution end with handset vendors providing only devices.
This contradicts the suggestion that RIM is enjoying a short-term advantage in go-to-market speed becaues of its integration of messaging solution and device, an advantage which will decrease as enteprises reqiure more complete mobilization solutions with broad, cross-platform capabilities.
If "over time, the more and more people who want to add functionality to these products, businesses who want to add functionality to these products--recognize the open platform advantages" then a MOT/Good, a RIM, or a Nokia/Intellisync become strong players.
If not, if mobile messaging and applications converge on email (not unified communications) and email becomes a commoditized offering dominated by Exchange/Outlook, then you would see Palm, HTC, Samsung, and other pure device players forced into a world very similar to Dell and Gateway with RIM remaining as the Mac-like outlier. This seems a far less likely scenario given the increasing mobilization of enterprise data and applications (For instance, see "In-Stat: Finally, Wireless Data Adoption Accelerates - 75% of US Businesses Have at Least One Data App")
Palm, in defending its inability to get the 750 certified and lack of a widely differentiated device portfolio, is making mutually exclusive claims about how the market is developing.
From the SeekingAlpha transcript:
Mike Abramsky - RBC Capital Markets
Okay. Last question is actually relative to Research in Motion. Obviously they have had very strong performance, some of which significantly has come off their new Pearl product, as well as expectations that is going to continue. Do you think that the market for these devices is strong? Do you think those kinds of growth rates are reflective of -- is it only RIM that can deliver that kind of growth? Is there something unique about the way they are approaching the market than you guys? Is there some difference to the products and strategy that you have that might account for the differences in the current growth rates?
Edward T. Colligan
I do not want to comment on RIM’s business here. I think at the end of the day, the facts are that they shipped that product in front of the holiday season and we were a little late on ours. That is just the reality. I think we could have, if we had been a little further ahead with our, even the 680 product, we would have seen a significant sell-through at this quarter already, relative to that.
To me, a big part of what you are seeing is sell-in, which is what the analysts track and that is a product delivery timing issue. Would we like to have the 750 for the holiday quarter? Of course we would and we are doing everything we can to deliver all those.
One of the things that they have as an advantage, I would say, at this point in time, because it has not been recognized in the other case over time, but I think it will be, is that they have a proprietary platform that they only produce for one platform. It is a little easier to get products to market on that, a set of more narrow applications and more narrow functionality, but you can get the products to market.
We think over time, the more and more people who want to add functionality to these products, businesses who want to add functionality to these products will start to recognize the open platform advantages that we have, and that will be an advantage at that point.
Right now, if it is only about design and form factor, then getting products to market faster makes a difference and they were ahead of us.
James Faucette - Pacific Crest Securities
Firstly, as it relates to Good and the enterprise, it is clear that Good would like to keep it device independent, or company device independent. Motorola said they would do the same, but just from where we can kind of gauge how important Good is to you, could you give us an idea what proportion you believe of devices that are going into the enterprise are ultimately ending up attached to a Good service?
Edward T. Colligan
The numbers we have seen are in the range of 10% to 12% and we, like we said, one of our things is to obviously continue to deliver that business and to grow that business, but we also have a number of options to replace that, should that not be available to us.
We think, and relative to everything that Microsoft has said, they are going to produce a more capable solution, specifically in the area of device management and control out in the field, which is the place where Good and RIM tend to excel relative to that solution today. As those capabilities get delivered on the Microsoft platform, I assume that Microsoft will be a major player in remote e-mail delivery. We are certainly the only company today that has a Windows Mobile and Palm OS push solution for Microsoft, and we intend to take advantage of that position.
Cringley calls WM dead
Sci-Tech Today | One Expert Says Windows Mobile Will Die.
Cringley says iPhone sounding death knell for WM. I think his analogy here is sloppy and Symbian is as likely as WM to fall of the shelf in market share, as the smartphone segment grows and blurs and Symbian increasingly gets pushed downmarket.
October 28, 2008 in Apple, Microsoft Mobile, Microsoft WM 5.0, Microsoft WM6+, Mobile industry commentary | Permalink | Comments (0)