IDC released a report on mobile advertising that is receiving a lot of commentary. IDC estimates that Google’s $1 billion in mobile ad revenues is mostly coming from mobile web display and search ads. It's not rocket science given Google's last earnings call; here is what Google told us:
"Mobile is on an annualized run rate of over $1 billion. This means the people who are accessing our products and services through their mobile phones are adding a $1 billion annually to our existing revenue streams. Clearly, this is the future of search in the Internet, more people in more countries coming online from these smartphones. Our mobile search queries have grown five times over the past couple of years. And of course, a lot more of those queries are now coming from Android phones."
Apple's app store revenue has come mostly from their role as billing platform provider, which is an interesting distinction to think about. I'll write more about the differences between these two models later.
What caught my attention about IDC's report is what it implies for the many Android ecosystem partners who have been anxious for Google to pay more attention to developing and fostering android marketplace. Google has no incentive, and possibly a counter-incentive, to improve the marketplace and the app store model according to this report. Look at the last round of updates Google rolled out and consider what level of progress the marketplace has seen in two years. Not much.
Think about what that means for the Android UI and where it will evolve.
Apple will continue to be an app-driven experience, but Google is driving Android to be a browser-based experience. If you deliver content or services through an application you need a plan for how that will work in a browser-based UI. Where will discovery come from? How will cross promotion work?
These are big questions to unravel for service providers, OEMs, and content players.